HARQUAHALA MAR 4, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************** | ****** 349 ****** | ***************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 3 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 24 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 25 - MAR 3 This Week : MAR 4 - MAR 10 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 69 39 31 32 ---- Normal 71 39 28 39 Recorded 69 30 23 26 0.03 2017 68 41 40 30 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 49.3 MAR 3 ; Min = 41 FEB 25 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will develop over AZ this week resulting in mostly clear weather with above normal temperatures. While no precipitation is expected during the work week, long range forecasts remain undecided regarding the weekend, with some models suggesting cooler conditions & a slight chance for rainsfall Sunday. Growers planning to plant this week should monitor updated weekend forecasts. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. To review local soil temperature data go to https://ag.arizona.edu/azmet. --Snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is running at 70% of median. The current forecast for spring flow into Lake Powell stands at 47% of normal (3.4 MAF). HARQUAHALA MAR 11, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************** | ******** 404 ******* | ******************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 10 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 3 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 4 - MAR 10 This Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 71 39 28 39 ---- Normal 74 40 30 48 Recorded 76 43 17 55 0.01 2017 70 41 40 36 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61 MAR 10 ; Min = 47.8 MAR 5 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will bring sunny, warm & dry weather through mid-week. A trough of low pressure will impact AZ late this week, resulting in windy conditions with higher humidity, cooler temperatures & a chance for rainfall beginning Friday. Growers considering planting this week are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as most production areas are expected to receive some rainfall this weekend. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Soils approach 60F at 8am when minimum air temperatures (at sunrise) remain above 47F. For local soil temperatures see https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm --Snow pack in the Colorado River Basin is running at 68% of median. The current forecast for spring flow into Lake Powell stands at 44% of normal (3.2 MAF). HARQUAHALA MAR 18, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************** | ********** 467 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 17 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 10 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 40 30 48 ---- Normal 79 43 30 65 Recorded 77 47 39 63 0.03 2017 82 43 36 73 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61.7 MAR 13 ; Min = 53.1 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A cool & dry Monday will be followed by much warmer conditions through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region. Warm & dry weather will continue through mid-week with temperatures peaking on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move across the Great Basin late this week, resulting in a slight chance for rain & a return to normal temperatures. Rain is more likely in northern production areas. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Hand- held digital thermometers are an inexpensive means of assessing soil temperature. See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from AZMET. Soil temperatures typically reach acceptable levels for planting when day- time air temperatures exceed 80F & minimum air temperatures exceed 47F. HARQUAHALA MAR 18, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *********************** | ********** 467 ******** | *********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 17 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 10 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 11 - MAR 17 This Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 74 40 30 48 ---- Normal 79 43 30 65 Recorded 77 47 39 63 0.03 2017 82 43 36 73 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61.7 MAR 13 ; Min = 53.1 MAR 17 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A cool & dry Monday will be followed by much warmer conditions through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region. Warm & dry weather will continue through mid-week with temperatures peaking on Thursday. A trough of low pressure will move across the Great Basin late this week, resulting in a slight chance for rain & a return to normal temperatures. Rain is more likely in northern production areas. --Minimum soil temperatures (at~8am) should exceed 60F prior to planting. Hand- held digital thermometers are an inexpensive means of assessing soil temperature. See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from AZMET. Soil temperatures typically reach acceptable levels for planting when day- time air temperatures exceed 80F & minimum air temperatures exceed 47F. HARQUAHALA MAR 25, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | *************************** | ************ 539 ********** | *************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 24 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 17 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 18 - MAR 24 This Week : MAR 25 - MAR 31 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 43 30 65 ---- Normal 80 44 30 69 Recorded 79 46 24 72 0.00 2017 93 50 41 112 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68 MAR 23 ; Min = 53.2 MAR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry storm system will pass through the region early this week, resulting in windy conditions & cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the mountains of northeast AZ. High pressure returns by mid-week, resulting in sunny skies & above normal temperatures. High temper- atures may exceed 90F in lower elevation production areas late in the week. --Growers planning to plant this week should monitor soil temperatures & updated forecasts. A good planting forecast calls for clear skies with maximum air temp- eratures above 80F and minimum air temperatures of 48F & above. --See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from local AZMET stations. HARQUAHALA APR 1, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ******************************* | ************** 615 ************ | ******************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 31 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 24 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 25 - MAR 31 This Week : APR 1 - APR 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 44 30 69 ---- Normal 80 45 28 71 Recorded 82 46 22 76 0.00 2017 82 50 39 84 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 63.5 MAR 31 ; Min = 56.1 MAR 26 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A dry storm system will pass through the region early this week, resulting in windy conditions & cooler temperatures through Tuesday. Precipitation with this system will be limited to the mountains of northeast AZ. High pressure returns by mid-week, resulting in sunny skies & above normal temperatures. High temper- atures may exceed 90F in lower elevation production areas late in the week. --Growers planning to plant this week should monitor soil temperatures & updated forecasts. A good planting forecast calls for clear skies with maximum air temp- eratures above 80F and minimum air temperatures of 48F & above. --See https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review soil temperatures from local AZMET stations. HARQUAHALA APR 8, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ************************************* | **************** 736 **************** | ************************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 7 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 31 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 1 - APR 7 This Week : APR 8 - APR 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 45 28 71 ---- Normal 79 46 30 71 Recorded 90 56 31 121 0.00 2017 81 48 31 75 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 72.3 APR 7 ; Min = 64.6 APR 2 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Sunny, hot & dry through mid-week with daytime temperatures approaching record levels. A strong storm system will pass north of AZ Thursday, resulting in windy & much cooler conditions Friday & Saturday. No precipitation is expected with this system. Warmer conditions will return by Sunday. --Warm spring weather has resulted in above normal HU accumulation. Growers are encouraged to complete plantings of full season varieties soon. Medium maturity varieties are recommended once HU accumulation exceeds 700-800. --Minimum soil temperatures should be 60F to ensure acceptable germination. Go to https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cot-soil.htm to review local AZMET values. --April 1 Colorado River flow projection: 3.1 MAF into Lake Powell (<50% normal). HARQUAHALA APR 15, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ****************************************** | ******************* 844 ****************** | ****************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 14 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 7 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 14 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 8 - APR 14 This Week : APR 15 - APR 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 46 30 71 ---- Normal 82 46 29 79 Recorded 88 54 21 108 0.00 2017 84 50 28 91 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 73.9 APR 8 ; Min = 63.5 APR 14 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A pair of storm systems will impact AZ this week. The first system will enter the region Monday & Tuesday, bringing high winds Monday followed by much cooler temperatures Tuesday. Warmer conditions return Wednesday only to be followed by another windy & dry storm system Thursday & Friday. High pressure returns next weekend, resulting in a return to warm & dry conditions with less wind. Neither of this week's storm systems offer much chance for precipitation. --Growers are encouraged to complete plantings of full season varieties soon. Medium maturity varieties are recommended once HU accumulation exceeds 700-800. --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA APR 22, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ********************************************** | ********************* 921 ******************** | ********************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 21 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 14 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 15 - APR 21 This Week : APR 22 - APR 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 46 29 79 ---- Normal 85 47 28 86 Recorded 81 47 23 76 0.00 2017 88 46 28 95 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 68.2 APR 16 ; Min = 60.8 APR 20 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week, resulting in very warm temp- eratures, scattered high elevation clouds & low humidity. A weak disturbance may produce a few high elevation showers in far eastern AZ late in the week. --Medium maturity varieties are recommended once heat unit (HU) accumulation exceeds 700-800 (see Planting Date Advisory graph above). --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA APR 29, 2018 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | v | ***************************************************** | *********************** 1051 ************************ | ***************************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 28 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 21 HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 13 days ahead of normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 22 - APR 28 This Week : APR 29 - MAY 5 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 85 47 28 86 ---- Normal 88 50 32 97 Recorded 95 56 35 130 0.00 2017 91 52 31 117 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 73.4 APR 26 ; Min = 66.6 APR 22 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A strong low pressure system will impact AZ during the first half of the week. Expect windy & much cooler conditions through Wednesday. Temperature will run 8- 10 degrees below normal by mid-week. Precipitation is possible with the passage of this system, particularly in northern & high elevation production areas. Hot & dry weather returns Friday as high pressure redevelops over the region. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early developmental stage. The first PHSs typically form at nodes 5 to 7 at ~700 HUs after planting. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 6, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************** 687 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********** 508 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15****** 285 +1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/1 * 55 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 5 v = Heat Units on APR 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1142; Last year = 1027 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 90 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 29 - MAY 5 This Week : MAY 6 - MAY 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 89 51 30 105 ---- Normal 91 53 34 114 Recorded 84 52 36 90 0.00 2017 93 55 36 123 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .38" .38" .38" .38" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure over the Southwest will produce hot & dry conditions for much of the week. Expect near record high temperatures mid-week. Windy & cooler conditions are expected late this week as a storm system passes through the Great Basin. This storm system is not expected to generate precipitation in cotton production areas. --Forecasts for Colorado River spring flow into Lake Powell now stand at 3 MAF or 42% of the average flow, which is ~7.2 MAF. --Plant population should range from 25,000-50,000 plants/a. To assess, count the number of plants in 1/1000a & multiply by 1000. Row length = to 1/1000a: 40"row = 13'1", 38"row = 13'9", 36"row = 14'6", 30"row = 17'5". HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 13, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | 3/15***************** 833 +7 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 654 +7 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********* 431 +2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/1 **** 201 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 12 v = Heat Units on MAY 5; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1288; Last year = 1150 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 147 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 6 - MAY 12 This Week : MAY 13 - MAY 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 91 53 34 114 ---- Normal 95 57 36 131 Recorded 97 61 39 147 0.00 2017 84 54 45 97 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .58" .44" .44" .44" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week. Expect sunny & dry weather with warm days & mild nights through mid-week. Windy & slightly cooler conditions are expected late this week as a storm system moves across the Great Basin. --Nitrogen (N) uptake increases at first square, reaching maximum levels at peak bloom. Split applications of N fertilizer are recommended during this period to ensure optimum crop performance & improve N fertilizer efficiency. Details at https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf. --Pinhead square (PHS) represents an important early season developmental stage. First PHSs typically develop at nodes 5-7 at 700 heat units after planting (HUAP). These first PHSs develop into the first flowers at ~1200 HUAP (see graph above). HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 20, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | 3/15******************* 953 +6 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 *************** 774 +5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15*********** 551 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ****** 321 +1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/15* 72 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 19 v = Heat Units on MAY 12; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1408; Last year = 1247 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 119 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 13 - MAY 19 This Week : MAY 20 - MAY 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 57 36 131 ---- Normal 93 57 38 125 Recorded 91 55 37 119 0.00 2017 86 54 37 100 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .69" .46" .4" .4" .4" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --A storm system will pass north of AZ early this week, resulting in breezy con- ditions with clear skies & near normal temperatures. High pressure redevelops over AZ Wednesday, bringing a return to hot & dry conditions late this week. --Forecasts for spring Colorado River flow into Lake Powell remain well below normal. Official May 15 forecasts call for 3 MAF for April through July or 42% of average (7.2 MAF). Flow to date is ~ 1 MAF compared to a normal value of 2.5 MAF. --Nitrogen (N) uptake increases at first square, reaching maximum levels at peak bloom. Split applications of N fertilizer are recommended during this period to ensure optimum crop performance & improve N fertilizer efficiency. Details at https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 27, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 3/15********************** 1080 +6 days | |v | | | | | | | 4/1 ****************** 901 +6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************** 678 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********* 448 +1 day | | | | | | | | | 5/15**** 199 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 26 v = Heat Units on MAY 19; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1535; Last year = 1347 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 127 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 20 - MAY 26 This Week : MAY 27 - JUN 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 93 57 38 125 ---- Normal 98 58 38 138 Recorded 90 57 39 127 0.00 2017 99 59 39 145 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .9" .65" .42" .42" .42" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Expect sunny & warm conditions through mid-week, followed by windy & warm con- ditions Wednesday & Thursday. Strong high pressure will develop over AZ late this week, resulting in very hot conditions by this weekend. --Evaporative demand has been running above normal due to the hot, dry & often windy conditions this spring. Growers should closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can lead to square abortion & lower fruit retention. --Nitrogen (N) uptake increases at first square, reaching maximum levels at peak bloom. Split applications of N fertilizer are recommended during this period to ensure optimum crop performance & improve N fertilizer efficiency. Details at https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 3, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15************************ 1223 +6 days | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************* 1044 +5 days | v | | | | | | | 4/15**************** 821 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************ 591 +1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******* 342 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 2 v = Heat Units on MAY 26; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1678; Last year = 1492 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 143 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 27 - JUN 2 This Week : JUN 3 - JUN 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 58 38 138 ---- Normal 98 60 38 142 Recorded 97 59 40 143 0.00 2017 100 63 43 159 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.07" .83" .53" .42" .42" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure over northern Mexico will keep hot conditions in place this week with low desert temperatures approaching 110F by the weekend. This high may shift northward late in the week, allowing some moisture to move into the region. No precipitation is expected in production areas, but clouds & isolated thunderstorms are possible in high elevation areas. --Evaporative demand is running above normal due to accelerated crop development resulting from above normal heat unit (HU) accumulation & hot & dry conditions. Growers should closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can lead to square abortion & lower fruit retention. --First flowers typically form at around node 7 at ~1200 HU after planting. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 10, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15**************************** 1384 +7 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************ 1205 +6 days | | v | | | | | | | 4/15******************** 982 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 *************** 752 +2 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15********** 503 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 9 v = Heat Units on JUN 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1839; Last year = 1651 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 161 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 3 - JUN 9 This Week : JUN 10 - JUN 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 60 38 142 ---- Normal 100 60 39 147 Recorded 103 63 38 161 0.00 2017 99 68 44 173 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.41" 1.15" .82" .47" .46" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will continue to support very hot conditions across much of AZ through mid-week. A shift in circulation & moisture from former Hurricane Bud will result in a significant increase in humidity beginning Wednesday, setting the stage for possible afternoon & evening thunderstorms during the latter half of the week. --An unusual period of heat stress might develop later this week if hot temper- atures continue & humidity levels increase to monsoon levels. June heat stress is rare, especially in mid-June. Impacts of early heat stress should be minimal for crops at the pre-bloom stage. Heat stress typically results in the loss of young 3-5 day old bolls. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 17, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************* 1553 +7 days | | | v | | | | | 4/1 *************************** 1374 +7 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/15*********************** 1151 +3 days | |v | | | | | | | 5/1 ****************** 921 +3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************* 672 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 16 v = Heat Units on JUN 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2008; Last year = 1824 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 169 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 10 - JUN 16 This Week : JUN 17 - JUN 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 100 60 39 147 ---- Normal 104 64 41 162 Recorded 100 67 47 169 0.15 2017 104 57 36 145 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.43" 1.2" .92" .62" .4" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will develop over AZ this week, resulting in very hot & dry conditions as the week progresses. Low desert temperatures are expected to exceed 110F Thursday & Friday. Longer term forecasts suggest the subtropical high responsible for the monsoon will move toward the Four Corners next week, aposition that is favorable for increased moisture across the state. --Split applications of N fertilizer are recommended between pinhead square & peak bloom to ensure optimum crop performance & N efficiency. More details at: www.extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1243.pdf. --First flowers typically develop at 1200 HUs after planting (HUAP) with peak bloom developing about 2000 HUAP. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 24, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15********************************** 1713 +7 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************* 1534 +6 days | | | v| | | | | | 4/15************************** 1311 +3 days | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ********************** 1081 +3 days | v| | | | | | | | 5/15***************** 832 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 23 v = Heat Units on JUN 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2168; Last year = 1969 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 159 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 17 - JUN 23 This Week : JUN 24 - JUN 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 64 41 162 ---- Normal 106 67 43 169 Recorded 102 63 43 159 0.00 2017 113 75 49 200 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.05" 1.76" 1.4" 1.04" .64" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will intensify over AZ through mid-week, resulting in hot & dry conditions. Low desert maximum temperatures should approach 110F by Wednesday. Atrough of low pressure will move across the West late this week, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures & dry conditions for most production areas. The ex- ception to this trend may be southeast AZ where humidity levels are expected to increase with the passage of the trough, leading to a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms beginning Friday. --Growers are encouraged to monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can lead to square abortion & delay peak bloom. Peak bloom typically oc- curs at about 2000 HUAP (see graph above). HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 1, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15************************************** 1887 +6 days | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ********************************** 1708 +6 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/15****************************** 1485 +3 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ************************* 1255 +3 days | | v| | | | | | | 5/15******************** 1006 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 30 v = Heat Units on JUN 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2342; Last year = 2169 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 175 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 24 - JUN 30 This Week : JUL 1 - JUL 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 67 43 169 ---- Normal 106 71 49 181 Recorded 104 67 43 175 0.00 2017 106 72 46 187 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.43" 2.13" 1.76" 1.37" .95" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High pressure will intensify over the CO/UT border this week, resulting in ex- tremely hot conditions for central & western AZ Wednesday through Friday. Low desert temperatures may exceed 115F during this period. The location of this high pressure system will allow moisture to stream into AZ, first in eastern AZ begin- ning Wednesday & across the rest of the state by the weekend. Expect some cooling as the moisture arrives & increasing chances for afternoon & evening thunderstorms. --With the extreme heat forecast for this week, growers are encouraged to closely monitor soil moisture & avoid water stress. Water stress can lead to square abort- ion & delay peak bloom. The forecast for extreme heat & rising humidity levels could produce heat stress, which can result in the abortion of small bolls. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 8, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15***************************************** 2074 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ************************************** 1895 +6 days | | | | v| | | | | 4/15********************************* 1672 +3 days | | | |v | | | | | 5/1 ***************************** 1442 +3 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************ 1193 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 7 v = Heat Units on JUN 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2529; Last year = 2356 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 186 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 1 - JUL 7 This Week : JUL 8 - JUL 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 71 49 181 ---- Normal 106 74 54 189 Recorded 107 72 43 186 0.00 2017 111 77 50 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.83" 2.55" 2.16" 1.76" 1.32" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 Stress ns ns ns ns L1 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Moisture levels will combine with a series of subtropical disturbances to produce achance of afternoon & evening thunderstorms this week, particularly during the first half of the week. Daytime temperatures will return to near normal levels while nights will remain warm due to increased cloudiness & humidity. --Hot temperatures combined with elevated humidity levels to produce Level 2 heat stress in many low desert production areas last week (see table above). L2 stress typically results in reduced levels of fruit retention caused by the abortion of young 3-5 day old bolls. The cooler daytime temperatures forecast for this week may lessen heat stress if night temperature drop back into the mid-70s as well. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 15, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15********************************************* 2274 +7 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ****************************************** 2095 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15************************************* 1872 +4 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ********************************* 1642 +3 days | | | v | | | | | 5/15**************************** 1393 +2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 14 v = Heat Units on JUL 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2729; Last year = 2558 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 202 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 8 - JUL 14 This Week : JUL 15 - JUL 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 74 54 189 ---- Normal 107 76 55 194 Recorded 103 77 66 202 0.28 2017 108 77 60 203 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.39" 2.39" 2.12" 1.78" 1.41" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 Stress L2 ns ns ns ns L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --High levels of moisture will remain in place through mid-week, providing a chance for showers & thunderstorms each day. Preferred areas for precipitation will be the southeast & central production areas. High pressure will redevelop over the region late this week, resulting in increased temperatures, lower humidity and reduced chances for precipitation. Daytime temperatures will approach 110F in low desert production areas as this drying trend develops. Heat stress lessened in many areas with the arrival of the cooler, humid conditions last week. Some Level 2 stress was registered at selected low desert production areas near the River. Heat stress typically results in reduced levels of fruit retention caused by the abortion of young 3-5 day old bolls. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 22, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15************************************************** 2479 +7 days | | | | | |v | | | 4/1 ********************************************** 2300 +6 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15****************************************** 2077 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ************************************* 1847 +3 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/15******************************** 1598 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 21 v = Heat Units on JUL 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2934; Last year = 2761 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 10 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 206 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 15 - JUL 21 This Week : JUL 22 - JUL 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 107 76 55 194 ---- Normal 105 77 59 194 Recorded 104 79 65 206 0.01 2017 104 81 64 207 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.45" 2.45" 2.45" 2.13" 1.75" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 Stress L1 L1 L2 L1 L2 L2 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Strong high pressure will move over AZ early this week resulting in the near record high temperatures. Daytime temperatures approaching 120F are possible along the River. Humidity levels will decline early in the week, then gradually increase late in the week as the high pressure system shifts toward NV. Cooler temperatures & increasing chances for precipitation will accompany this increase in humidity. Long-term forecast models indicate a more favorable flow pattern for precipitation this weekend & early next week. --Heat stress is likely in central & western AZ this week. Heat stress causes young 3-5 day old bolls to abort, lowering overall fruit retention. For more details see: https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 29, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15****************************************************** 2685 +7 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ************************************************** 2506 +7 days | | | | | |v | | | 4/15********************************************** 2283 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 ***************************************** 2053 +4 days | | | | |v | | | | 5/15************************************ 1804 +3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 28 v = Heat Units on JUL 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3140; Last year = 2968 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 11 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 205 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 22 - JUL 28 This Week : JUL 29 - AUG 4 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 77 59 194 ---- Normal 104 76 58 191 Recorded 111 79 59 205 0.01 2017 102 77 66 197 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.7" 2.7" 2.7" 2.7" 2.28" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 Stress L1 L1 L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Typical monsoon flow will remain in place this week. Expect elevated levels of humidity along with near normal temperatures & a chance for afternoon & evening thunderstorms each day. The best chances for precipitation will be in southeast AZ & other production areas located near higher elevation terrain. --Recent forecasts assign a 70% probability for the return of El Nino this winter. El Nino is associated with above normal winter precipitation & long range forecasts for the fall & early winter now exhibit a wet bias. --High humidity in combination with warm temperatures produces heat stress in lower elevation areas. Heat stress causes young 3-5 day old bolls to abort, lowering over-all fruit retention. See: https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 5, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | 3/15********************************************************** 2894 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ****************************************************** 2715 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15************************************************** 2492 +5 days | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ********************************************* 2262 +4 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15**************************************** 2013 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 4 v = Heat Units on JUL 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3349; Last year = 3165 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 210 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 29 - AUG 4 This Week : AUG 5 - AUG 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 104 76 58 191 ---- Normal 105 75 56 189 Recorded 108 80 63 210 0.01 2017 102 77 66 202 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.44" 2.44" 2.44" 2.44" 2.37" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 Stress L1 L2 L1 L2 L2 L2 L2 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Near record high temperatures are expected through Tuesday due to the presence of intense high pressure over AZ. This high is expected to migrate northwest by midweek, resulting in cooling temperatures & increased moisture. Moisture from a hurricane moving through the subtropics is expected to surge into AZ later this week, resulting in enhanced chances for precipitation in most production areas. --Heat stress continues to be a challenge in many low desert production areas. High humidity in combination with hot temperatures lessens the ability of the crop canopy to dissipate heat through evaporation, resulting in heat stress. Heat stress causes young 3-5 day old bolls to abort, lowering overall fruit retention. For more details see: https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 12, 2018 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15************************************************************** 3095 +9 days | | | | | | |v | | 4/1 ********************************************************** 2916 +8 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15****************************************************** 2693 +6 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ************************************************* 2463 +5 days | | | | | v| | | | 5/15******************************************** 2214 +4 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 11 v = Heat Units on AUG 4; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3550; Last year = 3368 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 12 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 202 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 5 - AUG 11 This Week : AUG 12 - AUG 18 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 75 56 189 ---- Normal 104 75 58 190 Recorded 106 77 60 202 0.07 2017 106 75 56 198 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.49" 2.54" 2.54" 2.54" 2.54" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 Stress L2 L1 L2 L1 L1 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- --Expect near normal temperatures along with elevated humidity levels this week. Thunderstorms are possible each day, with the highest probabilities forecast for Wednesday & Thursday as a tropical (easterly) wave moves across the region. --Cooler temperatures reduced heat stress late last week. Given the current fore- cast, stress levels this week should be limited to the less damaging L1 category except along the Colorado River where L2 stress remains possible. Heat stress causes young 3-5 day old bolls to abort, lowering overall fruit retention. For more details see: https://www.ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt. --The Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino Watch for the coming fall &winter. El Nino events are associated with above normal winter precipitation.