HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 22, 2004 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15****************************************************************** 3307 +4 days | | | | | | | v | | 4/1 ************************************************************* 3034 0 days | | | | | | |v | | 4/15********************************************************* 2864 -1 day | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 ***************************************************** 2634 -1 day | | | | | | v | | | 5/15************************************************ 2377 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 21 v = Heat Units on AUG 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3687; Last year = 3697 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days ahead of normal. HU last week = 185 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 15 - AUG 21 This Week : AUG 22 - AUG 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 76 60 197 ---- Normal 104 75 60 194 Recorded 102 71 56 185 0.57 2003 99 75 69 194 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.94" 2.27" 2.27" 2.27" 2.27" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- An upper air disturbance is forecast to impact AZ weather on Monday & Tuesday. This disturbance should draw in tropical moisture on Tuesday & produce scattered precipitation across south central AZ. Much drier weather is expected with the passage of this disturbance on Wednesday. Warm & dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week with temperatures approaching normal by the weekend. NOTE! Next week's advisory will be the last one for the season! HARQUAHALA MAR 6, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************ | **** 232 *** | ************ | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 5 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - FEB 26 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : FEB 27 - MAR 5 This Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 71 38 31 37 ---- Normal 73 40 31 46 Recorded 70 41 45 36 0.17 2004 88 52 40 106 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 54.5 MAR 5 ; Min = 50.5 FEB 27 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The damp low pressure system is leaving Arizona. High pressure is moving into the Southwest region. This will result in rapidly clearing skies. The high pressure system will continue to build across the Southwest bringing sunny skies and warm springtime weather to Southern Arizona. Temperatures will increase throughout the week. Low desert areas could reach the mid 80s by Friday; while higher elevations might only reach temperatures in the low to high 70s. Nighttime temperatures will remain cool; 50s in low desert and 40s for higher elevations. HARQUAHALA MAR 13, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | *************** | ****** 294 **** | *************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 12 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 5 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 2 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 6 - MAR 12 This Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 73 40 31 46 ---- Normal 79 43 33 63 Recorded 79 42 48 62 0.00 2004 91 48 37 107 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 58.8 MAR 12 ; Min = 52.2 MAR 7 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Unsettled & much cooler weather is expected through mid-week. A storm system will move into Northern AZ on Monday, bringing windy & much cooler weather with a slight chance for showers & thunderstorms. This is not a particularly wet storm & the best chances for precipitation will be in higher elevation production areas adjacent to the mountains. Expect temperatures to warm slowly late in the week. Temperatures should average about 3 degrees below normal for the week. Reminder...Soil temperatures will typically remain in the acceptable to optimal range for germination when minimum air temperatures remain in the upper 40s or higher & daytime highs exceed 80F. HARQUAHALA MAR 20, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ***************** | ****** 335 ****** | ***************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 19 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 12 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 4 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 13 - MAR 19 This Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 79 43 33 63 ---- Normal 82 44 29 74 Recorded 72 43 37 41 0.07 2004 90 55 35 118 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 61.2 MAR 13 ; Min = 52.7 MAR 16 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A series of storm systems are forecast to impact much of AZ this week. Expect a brief warming trend through Tuesday followed by increased cloudiness and a chance for rain on Wednesday. A brief break in the clouds and rain may occur Thursday before a second storm passes through on Friday and Saturday. Present forecasts indicate the first storm will have more impact in central & northern AZ while the second system may dig farther south & impact southern AZ. Temperatures should average slightly below normal for the week. Reminder...Soil temperatures will typically remain in the acceptable to optimal range for germination when minimum air temperatures remain in the upper 40s or higher & daytime highs exceed 80F. HARQUAHALA MAR 27, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ******************* | ******** 375 ****** | ******************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - MAR 26 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 19 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 20 - MAR 26 This Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 82 44 29 74 ---- Normal 76 43 31 58 Recorded 72 41 39 39 0.01 2004 82 52 28 87 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 60.1 MAR 23 ; Min = 51.1 MAR 26 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A warm & windy Monday will be followed by a couple of cooler days mid-week as a storm system passes through N. Arizona. Above normal temperatures on Monday will give way to below normal temperatures mid-week. High pressure will redevelop over the region late in the week & bring the warmest temperatures of the spring to date. This storm system is very dry and precipitation is expected only in the mountains. Temperatures should average near normal for the week. REMINDER: Soil temperatures will typically remain in the acceptable to optimal range for germination when minimum air temperatures remain in the upper 40s or higher & daytime highs exceed 80F. Research indicates that soil temperatures during the first 24 hrs after planting have a major impact on germination. Planting into cold soils in anticipation of a forecasted warming is therefore not recommended. HARQUAHALA APR 3, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ********************** | ********* 431 ******** | ********************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 2 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - MAR 26 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 9 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAR 27 - APR 2 This Week : APR 3 - APR 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 76 43 31 58 ---- Normal 76 44 32 59 Recorded 78 40 30 57 0.00 2004 82 54 47 90 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 56.5 APR 2 ; Min = 49.5 MAR 27 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Two storm systems are expected to impact AZ weather this week. The first will pass through Northern AZ on Monday bringing a few clouds, slightly cooler temperatures & the potential for very windy conditions. High pressure will then develop over AZ for the remainder of the work week, bringing mostly sunny skies with warm & dry conditions. The second storm is expected to pass through AZ over the weekend & will produce windy conditions with some cooling temperatures. Present forecasts indicate both storms have limited moisture which makes precipitation unlikely this week. Expect temperatures to average 5 degrees above normal for the week. REMINDER: Soil temperatures will typically remain in the acceptable to optimal range for germination when minimum air temperatures remain in the upper 40s or higher & daytime highs exceed 80F. Research indicates that soil temperatures during the first 24 hrs after planting have a major impact on germination. Planting into cold soils in anticipation of a forecasted warming is therefore not recommended. HARQUAHALA APR 10, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************************* | ********** 505 ********** | ************************* | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 9 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 2 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 7 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 3 - APR 9 This Week : APR 10 - APR 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 76 44 32 59 ---- Normal 80 44 27 69 Recorded 82 44 31 74 0.00 2004 86 50 36 96 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 65.1 APR 8 ; Min = 57.9 APR 5 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure is expected to dominate AZ weather this week. Expect sunny and dry conditions with a rapid early week warming trend. Temperatures are expected to peak mid-week, then cool slightly as we appraoch the weekend. Temperatures should average 3-5 degrees above normal for the week. The planting windows are open for most AZ locations (see graph above). Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. REMINDER: Soil temperatures will typically remain in the acceptable to optimal range for germination when minimum air temperatures remain in the upper 40s or higher & daytime highs exceed 80F. HARQUAHALA APR 17, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ****************************** | ************* 592 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 16 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 9 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 4 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 10 - APR 16 This Week : APR 17 - APR 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 44 27 69 ---- Normal 87 48 31 94 Recorded 88 41 30 85 0.00 2004 82 48 31 84 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 65.1 APR 16 ; Min = 59 APR 10 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect clear & dry weather this week. Hot & dry conditions on Monday will give way to breezy & slightly cooler weather on Tuesday & Wednesday as an upper level low moves across the Great Basin. High pressure will redevelop over AZ on Thursday & Friday & produce warmer temperatures & less wind. Long range forecasts indicate the possibility of precipitation late in the weekend or early next week. Temperatures should average about 3 degrees above normal for the week. The planting windows are open for most AZ locations (see graph above). Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. Medium and early maturity varieties are recommended once heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. HARQUAHALA APR 17, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ****************************** | ************* 592 ************ | ****************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 16 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 9 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 4 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 10 - APR 16 This Week : APR 17 - APR 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 80 44 27 69 ---- Normal 87 48 31 94 Recorded 88 41 30 85 0.00 2004 82 48 31 84 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 65.1 APR 16 ; Min = 59 APR 10 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect clear & dry weather this week. Hot & dry conditions on Monday will give way to breezy & slightly cooler weather on Tuesday & Wednesday as an upper level low moves across the Great Basin. High pressure will redevelop over AZ on Thursday & Friday & produce warmer temperatures & less wind. Long range forecasts indicate the possibility of precipitation late in the weekend or early next week. Temperatures should average about 3 degrees above normal for the week. The planting windows are open for most AZ locations (see graph above). Growers are encouraged to complete their plantings of full season varieties before heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. Medium and early maturity varieties are recommended once heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. HARQUAHALA APR 24, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ********************************** | *************** 677 ************** | ********************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 23 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 16 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 4 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 17 - APR 23 This Week : APR 24 - APR 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 87 48 31 94 ---- Normal 89 51 32 106 Recorded 85 45 31 86 0.00 2004 91 55 33 121 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 67.5 APR 18 ; Min = 62.6 APR 21 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will redevelop over AZ this week, bringing a return to sunny & dry weather. Expect breezy conditions on Monday as the weekend storm system exits the area, then a return to near normal temperatures. Long range fore- casts indicate another storm system will pass through AZ on Friday, bringing a slight chance for precipitation. Growers are encouraged to plant full season varieties before heat unit accumulation exceeds 700 (see graph above). Medium & early maturity varieties are recommended once heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. HARQUAHALA MAY 1, 2005 COTTON PLANTING DATE ADVISORY +-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | PINK BOLLWORM SUSCEPTIBILITY * | +---------+------------+-----------------------------------------+ | | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | | | v | ************************************** | ***************** 757 **************** | ************************************** | | ^ normal | | PLANTING WINDOWS | | | Short Season ---------------| | | | Medium Season ----| | | | Full Season | | +---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---+ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 HEAT UNITS (HU) ACCUMULATED FROM JAN 1 - APR 30 v = Heat Units accumulated from JAN 1 - APR 23 * HIGH:>50%, MEDIUM:25-50%, LOW<25% Spring Emergence after Susceptible Square HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- HUs are running about 5 days behind normal. HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : APR 24 - APR 30 This Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 89 51 32 106 ---- Normal 92 51 32 111 Recorded 81 48 38 79 0.00 2004 99 55 33 133 SOIL TEMPERATURES -------------------------------- Last Week's 8am Soil Temp: Max = 69.1 APR 28 ; Min = 63.5 APR 29 WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A series of weak upper air disturbances will pass over AZ this week, bringing breezy conditions and near normal temperatures. The first system will move through on Tuesday & will produce clouds and moderate winds early in the week. High pressure will redevelop over AZ on Wednesday and generate a couple of days of warm, dry weather before a second disturbance arrives for the weekend. Current forecasts indicate a slight chance for rain late this week with the passage of this second disurbance. Heat unit accumulation now exceeds 700 in most central & western AZ production areas. Growers are encourage to plant medium & early maturity varieties once heat unit accumulation exceeds 700. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 8, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15*********** 535 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ******** 425 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/15***** 263 -3 days | | | | | | | | | 5/1 * 70 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 7 v = Heat Units on APR 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 855; Last year = 1186 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days behind normal. HU last week = 99 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 1 - MAY 7 This Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 92 51 32 111 ---- Normal 94 56 35 126 Recorded 87 50 47 99 0.00 2003 93 55 39 125 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 12% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .4" .4" .4" .4" .57" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A storm system will track across the Great Basin this week, bringing windy & cooler weather mid-week. Warm & dry weather Monday will give way to windy & cooler weather Wednesday & Thursday. Temperatures should return to normal levels by the weekend. This storm system is expected to be dry -- the main problem will be the winds & some below normal temperatures. Temperatures should average slightly below normal for the week. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 15, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | | | 3/15************* 633 -6 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ********** 523 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15******* 361 -5 days | | | | | | | | | 5/1 *** 168 -3 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 14 v = Heat Units on MAY 7; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 953; Last year = 1311 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 7 days behind normal. HU last week = 97 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 8 - MAY 14 This Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 94 56 35 126 ---- Normal 95 57 38 134 Recorded 88 48 34 97 0.00 2004 91 57 35 126 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 19% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 Water Use (last week): .39" .39" .39" .39" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Expect warm & dry conditions across AZ this week. An upper air disturbance will track across the Great Basin early in the week, bringing a return to windy weather on Monday & Tuesday. This system may cool temperatures a few degrees, but it should not produce any precipitation. High pressure will then redevelop over AZ for the rest of week, bringing clear & dry weather with hot days & mild evenings. Temperatures should average slightly above normal this week. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 22, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | v| | | | | | | | 3/15*************** 771 -5 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/1 ************* 661 -2 days | v | | | | | | | | 4/15********** 499 -4 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ****** 306 -2 days | | | | | | | | | 5/15** 99 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 21 v = Heat Units on MAY 14; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1091; Last year = 1437 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 6 days behind normal. HU last week = 139 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 15 - MAY 21 This Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 57 38 134 ---- Normal 95 58 40 131 Recorded 99 57 42 139 0.00 2004 90 55 36 123 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 31% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .5" .45" .45" .45" .45" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Sunny and dry weather with very hot temperatures is expected to continue through mid-week. High pressure responsible the recent heat is forecast to move to the southeast by Wednesday which should produce a cooling trend during the latter half of the week. Expect above normal temperatures to moderate to near normal levels by the weekend. The bulk of the cotton production areas should remain dry this week, though current forecasts hints at some widely scattered showers early in the week along the border. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY MAY 29, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | | 3/15******************* 933 -3 days | v| | | | | | | | 4/1 **************** 823 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 4/15************* 661 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ********* 468 -1 day |v | | | | | | | | 5/15***** 261 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to MAY 28 v = Heat Units on MAY 21; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1253; Last year = 1560 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 161 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 22 - MAY 28 This Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 95 58 40 131 ---- Normal 98 59 38 142 Recorded 103 63 49 161 0.00 2004 104 59 41 151 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 49% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .76" .59" .47" .47" .47" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will develop over AZ early in the week, bringing a return to the normal hot and dry weather expected at this time of year. Expect temperatures to approach normal levels by mid-week. The ridge of high pressure will weaken late in the week as a storm system passes through the central Rockies. This system will bring windy & slightly cooler weather, but will carry insufficient moisture to generate any significant precipitation. Temperatures should average slightly below normal for the week. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 5, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | |v | | | | | | 3/15********************* 1072 -4 days | | v | | | | | | | 4/1 ******************* 962 -1 day | v| | | | | | | | 4/15**************** 800 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 ************ 607 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15******** 400 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 4 v = Heat Units on MAY 28; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1392; Last year = 1711 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 141 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : MAY 29 - JUN 4 This Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 59 38 142 ---- Normal 98 59 39 139 Recorded 95 59 44 141 0.00 2004 97 57 39 139 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 65% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): .99" .82" .57" .48" .48" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will dominate AZ weather this week. Expected moderate winds on Monday as the high moves into the region and then again on Thursday as a low pressure trough move across the Great Basin. Otherwise, mostly clear and dry conditions are expected with temperatures running slightly below normal. Forecasters expect a return to above normal temperature conditions by the weekend. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 12, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | | 3/15************************ 1207 -4 days | | |v | | | | | | 4/1 ********************** 1097 -1 day | | v | | | | | | | 4/15******************* 935 -3 days | v | | | | | | | | 5/1 *************** 742 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15*********** 535 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 11 v = Heat Units on JUN 4; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1527; Last year = 1850 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 134 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 5 - JUN 11 This Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 98 59 39 139 ---- Normal 101 62 41 156 Recorded 94 57 41 134 0.00 2004 102 63 33 158 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 78% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.21" 1.04" .79" .49" .48" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- A strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the West this week, resulting in hot & dry conditions. Expect clear skies with hot days and mild evenings & little chance of precipitation. Temperatures should average near normal for the week. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 19, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15*************************** 1360 -3 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/1 ************************* 1250 -1 day | | |v | | | | | | 4/15********************** 1088 -3 days | |v | | | | | | | 5/1 ****************** 895 -1 day | v | | | | | | | | 5/15************** 688 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 18 v = Heat Units on JUN 11; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1680; Last year = 2008 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 154 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 12 - JUN 18 This Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 101 62 41 156 ---- Normal 102 66 44 168 Recorded 101 61 45 154 0.00 2004 104 64 35 167 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 88% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.43" 1.26" 1.01" .72" .48" WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The ridge of high pressure presently located over the western US will intensify early in the week and bring the warmest temperatures of the year. Moisture from Mexico is expected to move into eastern & central AZ as this ridge intensifies, and will make for a couple of uncomfortable days. This moisture should generate some monsoonal type thunderstorms in the high country, but the storms are expect- ed to generate more wind and lightning than rain. The ridge will move eastward later in the week, bringing a return to cooler temperatures and dry southwest flow. Temperatures should average 3-5 degrees above normal this week. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUN 26, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | | 3/15******************************* 1541 -3 days | | | |v | | | | | 4/1 ***************************** 1431 0 days | | | v | | | | | | 4/15************************* 1269 -2 days | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ********************** 1076 -1 day | v | | | | | | | 5/15***************** 869 +1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUN 25 v = Heat Units on JUN 18; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 1861; Last year = 2175 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 3 days behind normal. HU last week = 180 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 19 - JUN 25 This Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 102 66 44 168 ---- Normal 105 67 44 174 Recorded 109 69 50 180 0.00 2004 102 61 34 153 PINK BOLLWORM EMERGENCE -------------------------------- Spring emergence of PBW should be about 95% complete at this time. ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.78" 1.6" 1.34" 1.03" .69" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 Stress ns ns L1 L1 ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Last week's unusual late June weather with its associated heat stress conditions should dissipate this week as an intense high pressure system sets up over AZ. Expect hot temperatures with low dew points and little chance for precipitation. Forecasters indicate temperatures could approach record levels in the western desert later in the week. Temperatures should average 5-8 degrees above normal this week, but the lower dew points should allow for some decent cooling during the nighttime hours. Long range forecast indicate this stretch of hot, dry weather should last through the 4th of July period. Heat stress Information will be provided on the advisories this year (see above). More detail on heat stress is available at the AZMET website: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 3, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15********************************** 1691 -3 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/1 ******************************** 1581 -1 day | | | |v | | | | | 4/15**************************** 1419 -3 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/1 ************************* 1226 -2 days | | v| | | | | | | 5/15******************** 1019 0 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 2 v = Heat Units on JUN 25; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2011; Last year = 2328 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 150 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUN 26 - JUL 2 This Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 67 44 174 ---- Normal 103 73 54 189 Recorded 107 58 38 150 0.00 2004 106 66 30 173 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.12" 1.94" 1.67" 1.34" .99" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 6/27 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Hot & dry weather is expected to continue for another week. High pressure is expected to remain over AZ for much of this week, producing hot days & normal nighttime temperatures. Expect temperatures to average about 3 degrees above normal this week with little chance for precipitation. Longer term, forecasters see a potential break in this weather pattern by the middle of next week which could herald the beginning of the monsoon season. Meanwhile, another 7-10 days of hot, dry weather should greatly assist this year's rather late crop. Heat stress information will be provided on the advisories this year (see above). More detail on heat stress is available at the AZMET website: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 10, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15************************************* 1857 -4 days | | | | |v | | | | 4/1 *********************************** 1747 -2 days | | | | v | | | | | 4/15******************************** 1585 -4 days | | | |v | | | | | 5/1 **************************** 1392 -2 days | | | v | | | | | | 5/15************************ 1185 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 9 v = Heat Units on JUL 2; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2177; Last year = 2501 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 165 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 3 - JUL 9 This Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 103 73 54 189 ---- Normal 105 73 53 191 Recorded 107 64 41 165 0.00 2004 106 75 53 198 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.53" 2.33" 2.04" 1.7" 1.33" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The high pressure system responsible for the recent hot weather is forecast to move north this week which should open the door for some moisture to enter AZ. Expect very hot & dry conditions through mid-week as the high migrates northward, followed by slight cooling and an increase in cloudiness & moisture. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible beginning Wednesday in eastern AZ & Thursday in central & western production regions. Temperatures should average about 5 degrees above normal this week. For more information on heat stress: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 17, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | | 3/15***************************************** 2041 -4 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 *************************************** 1931 -2 days | | | | |v | | | | 4/15*********************************** 1769 -4 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/1 ******************************** 1576 -3 days | | | v | | | | | 5/15*************************** 1369 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 16 v = Heat Units on JUL 9; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2361; Last year = 2699 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 182 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 10 - JUL 16 This Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 73 53 191 ---- Normal 105 73 54 191 Recorded 112 69 48 182 0.00 2004 108 79 59 205 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.77" 2.58" 2.3" 1.96" 1.61" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 Stress ns ns ns ns L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- High pressure will remain over AZ for the first half of the week, producing very hot temperatures. Some moisture has slipped underneath the high and has produced rather severe heat stress conditions in some areas. The high is projected to move north and east this week opening the door to the real monsoon. Expect hot temperatures and moderate humidity with scattered showers through mid-week, then a cooler and more humid end to the week with an increase in shower activity. For more information on the heat stress information provided above, please see the AZMET webpage at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 24, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15********************************************* 2249 -4 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/1 ******************************************* 2139 -2 days | | | | | v | | | | 4/15**************************************** 1977 -3 days | | | | |v | | | | 5/1 ************************************ 1784 -2 days | | | | v | | | | | 5/15******************************** 1577 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 23 v = Heat Units on JUL 16; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2569; Last year = 2904 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 209 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 17 - JUL 23 This Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 73 54 191 ---- Normal 105 75 59 195 Recorded 109 80 61 209 0.05 2004 106 73 55 195 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.84" 2.84" 2.7" 2.36" 1.99" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 Stress L2 L2 L2 L2 L2 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The high pressure system will continue to hang over Arizona although its strength has somewhat weakened. High temperatures might be slightly reduced. Some areas can expect upper-90s while low desert areas will remain over 100 degrees. The daily monsoon cycle will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chances of precipitation will be 40% early in the week. A low pressure system entering Arizona from the northwest will bring slightly dryer air into the state and could reduce the chances of precipitation for central Arizona to about 20%. Heat stress has lessened but could still reach severe levels in some regions. For more information on the heat stress information provided above, please see the AZMET webpage at: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY JUL 31, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15************************************************* 2449 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *********************************************** 2339 -1 day | | | | | v| | | | 4/15******************************************** 2177 -3 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/1 **************************************** 1984 -2 days | | | | |v | | | | 5/15************************************ 1777 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to JUL 30 v = Heat Units on JUL 23; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2769; Last year = 3099 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 201 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 24 - JUL 30 This Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 75 59 195 ---- Normal 106 77 58 199 Recorded 105 77 64 201 0.02 2004 104 79 47 204 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.53" 2.53" 2.53" 2.42" 2.09" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 Stress ns L1 L1 L1 L1 L1 ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The ridge that steers monsoon flow is now in a very good position to inject moisture into AZ. Add to this a relatively active subtropical flow in Mexico & one has the makings for an active week for showers and thunderstorms. Expect typical monsoon weather with partly cloudy skies, near-normal temperatures & high humidity. The development of monsoon flow has reduced temperatures consid- erably in the last two weeks; however, heat stress remains a problem in many low elevation production areas due to the very high dewpoints presently in place. For more information on heat stress see: http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/cotton.htm HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 7, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | | 3/15***************************************************** 2640 -4 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 *************************************************** 2530 -2 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*********************************************** 2368 -3 days | | | | | v| | | | 5/1 ******************************************** 2175 -2 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15*************************************** 1968 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 6 v = Heat Units on JUL 30; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 2960; Last year = 3303 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 4 days behind normal. HU last week = 191 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : JUL 31 - AUG 6 This Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 106 77 58 199 ---- Normal 103 74 58 191 Recorded 103 73 66 191 1.25 2004 106 77 56 199 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.28" 2.28" 2.28" 2.28" 2.16" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 7/31 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 Stress ns ns ns ns L1 L1 L1 Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The atmosphere remains in a favorable pattern for monsoon flow. Expect partly cloudy skies, moderate to high humidity & near normal temperatures this week. Showers & thunderstorms will develop each day during the afternoon/evening. Heat stress has diminished in the last week, but Level 1 stress continues at lower elevations. A review of cotton fields in the Mohave & Parker Valleys revealed a large number of heat stressed flowers (elongated stigma & little/no pollen). These malformed flowers were damaged while squares and thus reflect the severe heat stress conditions encountered in mid to late July. These malformed flowers will not form bolls. Less severe heat stress symptoms were observed in western Maricopa County where flowers exhibited extended stigmas, but still were produc- ing pollen. Fruit retention should improve once the flowers damaged by the July Level 2 stress complete their development (about 2 weeks after L2 stress ended), provided we don't return to severe heat stress conditions. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 14, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15********************************************************* 2827 -4 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/1 ****************************************************** 2717 -2 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15*************************************************** 2555 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *********************************************** 2362 -2 days | | | | | v | | | | 5/15******************************************* 2155 -1 day | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 13 v = Heat Units on AUG 6; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3147; Last year = 3502 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 186 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 7 - AUG 13 This Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 103 74 58 191 ---- Normal 105 76 61 197 Recorded 98 73 69 186 1.50 2004 102 72 61 184 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 1.85" 1.85" 1.85" 1.85" 1.85" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/7 8/8 8/9 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 Stress L1 ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- The first real break in the monsoon will occur this week. Expect mostly sunny skies with reduced humidity and moderate temperatures this week. Thunderstorms are possible Monday in the higher elevations during the transition to this drier condition. Daytime temperatures are expected to return to normal levels by mid- week, but the drier air should produce cooler nights. A return to monsoon flow is expected across much of AZ by the weekend. The recent cooler, wet weather has eliminated heat stress in recent days. Growers should see improved fruit retention in the coming week, given the current forecast for lower humidity and moderate temperatures. HARQUAHALA COTTON DEVELOPMENT ADVISORY AUG 21, 2005 PLANTING +/- normal DATE+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | v | | 3/15************************************************************ 3012 -4 days | | | | | | |v | | 4/1 ********************************************************** 2902 -2 days | | | | | | v | | | 4/15******************************************************* 2740 -4 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/1 *************************************************** 2547 -3 days | | | | | | v | | | 5/15*********************************************** 2340 -2 days | | | | | | | | | | Pin Sus 1st 1" Pk. Bloom Cut-Out Terminate | | head Sq. Flowr Boll +---+---+ +---+---+ +---+---+ | | S M F S M F S M F | +-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-+ 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200 3600 HEAT UNITS ACCUMULATED FROM PLANTING to AUG 20 v = Heat Units on AUG 13; S,M,F = Short, Medium, and Full Season Varieties HEAT UNITS -------------------------------- Heat Unit (HU) accumulation since Jan 1 = 3332; Last year = 3686 HUs since Jan 1 are running about 5 days behind normal. HU last week = 184 HISTORICAL STATISTICS -------------------------------- Last Week : AUG 14 - AUG 20 This Week : AUG 21 - AUG 27 HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs RAIN HIGH LOW DEWPT HUs Normal 105 76 61 197 ---- Normal 105 76 58 197 Recorded 102 71 63 184 0.19 2004 100 66 48 171 ESTIMATED WATER USE -------------------------------- Planting date : 3/15 4/1 4/15 5/1 5/15 Water Use (last week): 2.07" 2.07" 2.07" 2.07" 2.07" HEAT STRESS LEVELS -------------------------------- Date 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 Stress ns ns ns ns ns ns ns Key : ns = no stress; L1 = Level 1 Stress; L2 = Level 2 Stress WEATHER UPDATE -------------------------------- Monsoon moisture is forecast to return to most of AZ early this week. The moisture will reduce daytime temperatures and produce an increase in thunderstorm activity across much of the state. Temperatures should average near normal for the week. The extended forecasts suggests another drying trend is possible by the weekend. The recent drier weather has reduced heat stress and should have resulted in a period of improved fruit retention. This week's forecast may produce another period of heat stress if dew points again rise above 60F and minimum temperatures increase into the upper 70s or higher.